Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 1.957037 2.068101 2.184532 2.316110 2.461183 2.616841 2.797269
2025-07-20 1.817200 1.974588 2.147469 2.353035 2.592914 2.866681 3.206758
2025-07-27 1.729663 1.916264 2.128117 2.389566 2.708069 3.089734 3.591823
2025-08-03 1.637894 1.840391 2.075953 2.374940 2.751541 3.220812 3.868361
2025-08-10 1.562840 1.776441 2.029958 2.359426 2.786514 3.337390 4.131452
2025-08-17 1.495617 1.716395 1.982868 2.336200 2.805769 3.430276 4.367124
2025-08-24 1.436497 1.662201 1.938613 2.311653 2.818566 3.511845 4.591541
2025-08-31 1.395801 1.628276 1.917114 2.313888 2.865422 3.641975 4.900773
2025-09-07 1.364197 1.603808 1.905670 2.327552 2.927303 3.796921 5.266545
2025-09-14 1.317254 1.557323 1.862820 2.295224 2.920287 3.846999 5.464681
2025-09-21 1.273531 1.513138 1.820793 2.261234 2.907656 3.885912 5.646569
2025-09-28 1.228260 1.465213 1.771676 2.214501 2.872595 3.885718 5.757175
2025-10-05 1.211722 1.455034 1.773510 2.240855 2.950157 4.074581 6.248610
2025-10-12 1.199135 1.449480 1.781146 2.275583 3.042559 4.296725 6.845839
2025-10-19 1.187319 1.444302 1.788739 2.310145 3.136552 4.530818 7.516491
2025-10-26 1.160490 1.417641 1.764996 2.296305 3.150919 4.624595 7.901184
2025-11-02 1.135021 1.391979 1.741605 2.281622 3.162482 4.713669 8.293074
2025-11-09 1.108739 1.364371 1.714389 2.259632 3.160054 4.775734 8.632928
2025-11-16 1.083481 1.337452 1.687221 2.236385 3.153787 4.829423 8.963626
2025-11-23 1.067070 1.322408 1.676661 2.238502 3.191137 4.972039 9.564786
2025-11-30 1.054621 1.312520 1.673174 2.251443 3.248017 5.159875 10.347846
2025-12-07 1.030452 1.285367 1.643377 2.220821 3.224889 5.179013 10.638198
2025-12-14 1.006885 1.258533 1.613312 2.188609 3.197048 5.185625 10.893657